2008 Woodie Awards
Political play of the week: Reality check
Guest Opinion
Issue date: 2/22/07 Section: Opinions
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This week, David Yepsen, Iowa's premier political analyst, highlighted the striking contrasts between the Iowa Democratic and Republican camps. He painted the current Republican mood as bleak and labeled Republican Sen. John McCain's recent visit to Iowa as "somber."
"No music. Not much cheering. No waving of signs or other hoopla. The cute one-liners that were funny in some of the senator's past campaign appearances were greeted with only polite chuckling this time," wrote Yepsen, who described the GOP event as having roughly 200 people stuffed in an "overheated" ballroom of Hotel Fort Des Moines.
It is a glaring reality Republicans have to swallow in light of the Democratic steamrollers of Rodham Clinton, Obama, and Edwards. Their rallies have claimed thousands of adoring fans, singing to the likes of John Mellencamp and waving handmade signs, such as the adorable one I saw a 2-year old girl hold last week reading, "Iowa hearts Obama."
Jake Ketzner, a co-founder of the Students for Giuliani Iowa chapter, understands this. Ketzner chose Giuliani because the former New York mayor is a candidate who excites him, and although Ketzner describes himself as a conservative and a "Bush Republican," he supports Giuliani because "he's a moderate and a proven leader." A local GOP insider who declined to be named echoed that sentiment by tying it to McCain, saying that he predicts Giuliani's numbers will continue to rise while McCain will seemingly hit a "brick wall" as the primaries draw closer.
Indeed, almost all polls including the Marist, Time, and Newsweek show that Giuliani has moved from either a tied or slight edge against McCain to a commanding lead. I'm sure the McCain camp is in a tizzy over his falling numbers. (Although the senator likes to pretend he doesn't care about poll numbers.) The most recent Fox News poll had the former mayor with a whopping 25 point advantage over the senator.
Now, before McCain fans start inundating me with angry e-mails, I will acknowledge that these polls are too early to make any real judgments. But one shouldn't just brush them off. These early polls are driving forces; they drive donors and with donors come money - fountains of it. Early polling also drives the direction of media buzz and campaign staffers. Just last month, Giuliani hired former Republican representative and failed gubernatorial nominee Jim Nussle as his top consultant in Iowa.
Wait, isn't Giuliani a liberal Republican?
Sure he is. (Although Ketzner prefers the term moderate.) He's also liberal on civil unions, and sure he's a pro-choice, pro-gun control, a New York Republican, and sure he's had not one, not two, but three wives, big problem for Evangelical primary voters.
But the polls indicate the GOP is saying "oh, well" to those things. Why? Republican primary voters want a candidate who can win. Right now, electability is the biggest factor for them, because people such as Ketzner see that Giuliani is a candidate that can not only defeat the top-tier Democrats but can uplift them with what he describes as an "optimistic tone and a positive message."
It was a gray, cold caucus morning when Iowa Democrats woke up in a tingly sweat, looked in their mirrors, and said to themselves, "Oh my God, what are we doing?" and preceded to switch their vote from Dean to Kerry that very evening. It is that very scenario that now has McCain's camp scrambling for hard-right cover and why an early reality check will win GOP voters the political play of the week.
Jesse Tangkhpanya is a UI political science and journalism student.
Last Political Play Winner: Rick Dobyns & Mark Martin
"No music. Not much cheering. No waving of signs or other hoopla. The cute one-liners that were funny in some of the senator's past campaign appearances were greeted with only polite chuckling this time," wrote Yepsen, who described the GOP event as having roughly 200 people stuffed in an "overheated" ballroom of Hotel Fort Des Moines.
It is a glaring reality Republicans have to swallow in light of the Democratic steamrollers of Rodham Clinton, Obama, and Edwards. Their rallies have claimed thousands of adoring fans, singing to the likes of John Mellencamp and waving handmade signs, such as the adorable one I saw a 2-year old girl hold last week reading, "Iowa hearts Obama."
Jake Ketzner, a co-founder of the Students for Giuliani Iowa chapter, understands this. Ketzner chose Giuliani because the former New York mayor is a candidate who excites him, and although Ketzner describes himself as a conservative and a "Bush Republican," he supports Giuliani because "he's a moderate and a proven leader." A local GOP insider who declined to be named echoed that sentiment by tying it to McCain, saying that he predicts Giuliani's numbers will continue to rise while McCain will seemingly hit a "brick wall" as the primaries draw closer.
Indeed, almost all polls including the Marist, Time, and Newsweek show that Giuliani has moved from either a tied or slight edge against McCain to a commanding lead. I'm sure the McCain camp is in a tizzy over his falling numbers. (Although the senator likes to pretend he doesn't care about poll numbers.) The most recent Fox News poll had the former mayor with a whopping 25 point advantage over the senator.
Now, before McCain fans start inundating me with angry e-mails, I will acknowledge that these polls are too early to make any real judgments. But one shouldn't just brush them off. These early polls are driving forces; they drive donors and with donors come money - fountains of it. Early polling also drives the direction of media buzz and campaign staffers. Just last month, Giuliani hired former Republican representative and failed gubernatorial nominee Jim Nussle as his top consultant in Iowa.
Wait, isn't Giuliani a liberal Republican?
Sure he is. (Although Ketzner prefers the term moderate.) He's also liberal on civil unions, and sure he's a pro-choice, pro-gun control, a New York Republican, and sure he's had not one, not two, but three wives, big problem for Evangelical primary voters.
But the polls indicate the GOP is saying "oh, well" to those things. Why? Republican primary voters want a candidate who can win. Right now, electability is the biggest factor for them, because people such as Ketzner see that Giuliani is a candidate that can not only defeat the top-tier Democrats but can uplift them with what he describes as an "optimistic tone and a positive message."
It was a gray, cold caucus morning when Iowa Democrats woke up in a tingly sweat, looked in their mirrors, and said to themselves, "Oh my God, what are we doing?" and preceded to switch their vote from Dean to Kerry that very evening. It is that very scenario that now has McCain's camp scrambling for hard-right cover and why an early reality check will win GOP voters the political play of the week.
Jesse Tangkhpanya is a UI political science and journalism student.
Last Political Play Winner: Rick Dobyns & Mark Martin
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